Conflict Dynamics

Conflict Dynamics Figure 1. Embedded combatant and civilian subsystems in civil conflict drive dynamics for co-evolution of resiliency and violence in civil conflict.  Resiliency in conflict can be seen through the perspective of civilians and different parties to the conflict. The interdependent feedback loops are made evident through the amount of services provided to civilians, the perceived grievances of civilians, and their mobilization to violence (or displacement).   These feedback loops drive choices of individual agents, which in turn impact the flow of resources through the system. Figure 2 shows these dynamics from the viewpoint of civilians and their choices to leave, stay neutral, or join the conflict.  This work will be presented and discussed at the 32nd International System Dynamics Conference in Delft, Netherlands July 20-24, 2014.

Figure 2. Integrated Agent Based Model and System Dynamic Model of Human Security and Resilience in Civil Conflict.  This is a causal loop system dynamic diagram based on stocks and flows combined with an agent based model based on individual choice.   The model was built using the modeling tool, VENSIM, and will be implemented in AnyLogic. The  is a modified extension of an insurgency recruiting model originally done by Choucri et al (2010).

Figure 2. Integrated Agent Based Model and System Dynamic Model of Human Security and Resilience in Civil Conflict. This is a causal loop system dynamic diagram based on stocks and flows combined with an agent based model based on individual choice. The model was built using the modeling tool, VENSIM, and will be implemented in AnyLogic. The is a modified extension of an insurgency recruiting model originally done by Choucri et al (2010).

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